Wednesday, February 14, 8:20AM--
Winter Storm Number 4 of the 2006-2007 season was worse than I thought it would be. I really felt that the NWS had over-estimated the cold air intrusion that would wrap around the backside of the storm, that we were just a shade too far south to see any snow out of it, etc.
Yesterday morning at around 6:30AM, as I drove to work in a steady rain with the temperature about 37F, I was gloating about how I had been right to not predict snow...well, you know what they say about not counting your chickens before they have hatched. In downtown STL around noon-time yesterday, we experienced near-blizzard conditions for roughly 30 minutes (blizzard criteria are winds of at least 35 MPH, and visibility reduced to 1/4 mile or less by falling or blowing snow, and all of this persisting for at least 3 hours). I have not seen it snow that hard in STL in years...luckily (or unluckily, depending on one's perspective), those conditions did not last for too long. Further to our northeast, from a swath from roughly Peoria to north of Indianapolis, Blizzard Warnings persisted through the day, with 1 foot or greater snowfall amounts common.
What was I right about?
Well, not much. Yesterday morning, it sure looked like I was going to be right, and the NWS was going to owe everyone a big apology for enticing school closings, causing panic, etc. I was almost right, but being "almost right" doesn't count for JACK. That's like saying "the Rams ALMOST won the Superbowl in 2001." No one cares about "almost;" they only care about who was right. Chalk one up for the NWS. They are the true experts, afterall. To be honest, I am glad they were right. If they had mis-predicted yet another storm, it would have further eroded the public's confidence in them. As it turned out, the school closings were certainly justified.
So, until the next storm......
Caw! Caw! (Munch! Munch!)....that's me eating some crow.
-WD
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Monday, February 12, 2007
Is Weatherdork Gonna Go Down in Flames?
Monday, February 12, 4:30PM--
WINTER STORM WARNING in effect until 4PM Tuesday...
The NWS released its 4PM zone forecast, and has upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a much-more-serious Winter Storm Warning. The call now is for 5-8" of snow by the time it winds down tomorrow afternoon.
But I'll tell you what...I am sticking to my guns on this one. Looking back at my "Farmington Rule," Farmington's under a Flood Watch instead of some type of Winter weather watch...because this will be all rain for them, with maybe a little snow.
I think the NWS has screwed up the "freeze line" yet again, and this will be mostly a rain event for STL. This storm has all of the hallmarks of a typical Egg-On-Their-Face wrong call. We'll see.
Funny business, trying to predict the future.
Remember....I WANT it to snow! So, I look at this like a win-win for me: I either get to be right, or I get to be happy!
Think snow!
-WD
WINTER STORM WARNING in effect until 4PM Tuesday...
The NWS released its 4PM zone forecast, and has upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a much-more-serious Winter Storm Warning. The call now is for 5-8" of snow by the time it winds down tomorrow afternoon.
But I'll tell you what...I am sticking to my guns on this one. Looking back at my "Farmington Rule," Farmington's under a Flood Watch instead of some type of Winter weather watch...because this will be all rain for them, with maybe a little snow.
I think the NWS has screwed up the "freeze line" yet again, and this will be mostly a rain event for STL. This storm has all of the hallmarks of a typical Egg-On-Their-Face wrong call. We'll see.
Funny business, trying to predict the future.
Remember....I WANT it to snow! So, I look at this like a win-win for me: I either get to be right, or I get to be happy!
Think snow!
-WD
Updated NWS forecast
Monday, February 12, 1:00PM--
Right after I issued my "Drop Dead Prediction," the NWS updated their forecast, and the new forecast is more dire than the previous one.
They are now calling for 3-6" of snow by the time the storm ends tomorrow. And while they have not upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a typically more-serious Snow Advisory (and 3-6" of snow WOULD meet the criteria for a Snow Advisory), they appear more confident that we will be getting quite a bit of snow here in STL.
Did I make a mistake in thinking this will mostly be a rain-maker? Maybe. But I believe in making a prediction and sticking to my guns, right or wrong.
So let's hope for the best, and that by this time tomorrow, we have 6" of the white stuff on the ground, and I am eating some crow!
-WD
Right after I issued my "Drop Dead Prediction," the NWS updated their forecast, and the new forecast is more dire than the previous one.
They are now calling for 3-6" of snow by the time the storm ends tomorrow. And while they have not upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a typically more-serious Snow Advisory (and 3-6" of snow WOULD meet the criteria for a Snow Advisory), they appear more confident that we will be getting quite a bit of snow here in STL.
Did I make a mistake in thinking this will mostly be a rain-maker? Maybe. But I believe in making a prediction and sticking to my guns, right or wrong.
So let's hope for the best, and that by this time tomorrow, we have 6" of the white stuff on the ground, and I am eating some crow!
-WD
Winter Storm? I'm thinking NOT
Monday, February 12, 11:30AM--
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 12 PM CST Tuesday...
Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction:
60% chance - Rain, with some spotty, slushy snow/sleet/glazing. Messy, but nothing dire.
15% chance - more than 3", but less than 6" snow. School Cancellations.
15% chance - 0-3" of snow/sleet
10% chance - nothing
Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium-High
Onset: Rain to arrive sometime this afternoon/evening....probably sometime after 3PM. It should be light to moderate RAIN. Snow, if any, will come later this evening.
Discussion: Enh....this system is nothing to get all that bent out of shape about. The forecasting from the NWS broke about every rule I have when it comes to making my predictions....that's why I don't think we will get much winter weather here....at least not enough to cause traffic havoc and massive school closings. Here are a few rules from my playbook that made me throw red flags, and doubt their forecast:
Rule: The NWS day-of-storm temperature forecast is always too cold for reality; add 3-5 degrees to what they predicted. The forecasted high for tomorrow is 30 degrees. I just know from experience that this is probably 5 degrees too cold. So lets call it 35 instead. Since water freezes at 32F, too much of this precip will fall as rain.
Rule: Saint Louis is just a little too far East, and a little too far South to get hammered with snow. For whatever reason, geography is against us here in STL. We are about 100 miles too far east to get the great "conveyer belt" moisture surge from the Gulf of Mexico, and about 100 miles too far south to get cold enough air to cause winter-type precipitation. That conspires against us perfectly for this storm system.
Rule: Never sound the alarm until you see the flakes/drops falling from the sky. Last night, the NWS issued a freezing rain advisory in effect from 6AM until 12 Noon today. Do you see any freezing rain? No. How about plain-old rain? Nope. The NWS stoked the panic flames before there was any reason to. Whenever they are THAT wrong about something, I always doubt the whole forecast.
Rule: If thunderstorms are predicted south of St. Louis, we won't get that much moisture here. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. While this does not mean it is impossible for moisture to reach our area, it is my experience that thunderstorms south of Missouri tend to steal the moisture that was headed our way.
Rule: Never make dire winter forecasts for St. Louis based solely on computer models. The NWS has been predicting this winter storm for 4-5 days now, well before the low pressure system ever even came ashore in California. It looks like the models were at least partially right here, though. It was a fairly good prediction....the models were just a little too cold.
Rule: When forecasting a Southwest Storm, never predict snow for St. Louis unless you are predicting snow for Farmington. This rule is related to the "STL is a little too far south" rule. But it is my experience that the forecasters wrongly predict where that "freezing line" will be, putting that line 50-100 miles too far south. So, my rule of thumb is if Farmington doesn't also have snow in the forecast, then they probably don't have a good handle on where that freezing line will really be, which means mostly rain for STL. And while Farmington has snow in the forecast for tomorrow....well, I just don't think they're right!
Anyway, there you have it. G-d, I want to be wrong....I HOPE I am wrong...but I think we just have a rain-maker on our hands.
-WD
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 12 PM CST Tuesday...
Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction:
60% chance - Rain, with some spotty, slushy snow/sleet/glazing. Messy, but nothing dire.
15% chance - more than 3", but less than 6" snow. School Cancellations.
15% chance - 0-3" of snow/sleet
10% chance - nothing
Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium-High
Onset: Rain to arrive sometime this afternoon/evening....probably sometime after 3PM. It should be light to moderate RAIN. Snow, if any, will come later this evening.
Discussion: Enh....this system is nothing to get all that bent out of shape about. The forecasting from the NWS broke about every rule I have when it comes to making my predictions....that's why I don't think we will get much winter weather here....at least not enough to cause traffic havoc and massive school closings. Here are a few rules from my playbook that made me throw red flags, and doubt their forecast:
Rule: The NWS day-of-storm temperature forecast is always too cold for reality; add 3-5 degrees to what they predicted. The forecasted high for tomorrow is 30 degrees. I just know from experience that this is probably 5 degrees too cold. So lets call it 35 instead. Since water freezes at 32F, too much of this precip will fall as rain.
Rule: Saint Louis is just a little too far East, and a little too far South to get hammered with snow. For whatever reason, geography is against us here in STL. We are about 100 miles too far east to get the great "conveyer belt" moisture surge from the Gulf of Mexico, and about 100 miles too far south to get cold enough air to cause winter-type precipitation. That conspires against us perfectly for this storm system.
Rule: Never sound the alarm until you see the flakes/drops falling from the sky. Last night, the NWS issued a freezing rain advisory in effect from 6AM until 12 Noon today. Do you see any freezing rain? No. How about plain-old rain? Nope. The NWS stoked the panic flames before there was any reason to. Whenever they are THAT wrong about something, I always doubt the whole forecast.
Rule: If thunderstorms are predicted south of St. Louis, we won't get that much moisture here. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. While this does not mean it is impossible for moisture to reach our area, it is my experience that thunderstorms south of Missouri tend to steal the moisture that was headed our way.
Rule: Never make dire winter forecasts for St. Louis based solely on computer models. The NWS has been predicting this winter storm for 4-5 days now, well before the low pressure system ever even came ashore in California. It looks like the models were at least partially right here, though. It was a fairly good prediction....the models were just a little too cold.
Rule: When forecasting a Southwest Storm, never predict snow for St. Louis unless you are predicting snow for Farmington. This rule is related to the "STL is a little too far south" rule. But it is my experience that the forecasters wrongly predict where that "freezing line" will be, putting that line 50-100 miles too far south. So, my rule of thumb is if Farmington doesn't also have snow in the forecast, then they probably don't have a good handle on where that freezing line will really be, which means mostly rain for STL. And while Farmington has snow in the forecast for tomorrow....well, I just don't think they're right!
Anyway, there you have it. G-d, I want to be wrong....I HOPE I am wrong...but I think we just have a rain-maker on our hands.
-WD
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