Friday, December 14 -- 5:40PM
The NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for midnight tonight through midnight Saturday...
The forecast is now for 6-8" of the fluffy stuff in the STL metro area. Points southwest of us...Rolla for instance....are forecasted to receive 6-12". Looking at the natioanal radar, you can see the precip getting ready to push into Southwest Missouri.
Here we go! Let's hope its true!!
I want to believe!
WD
Friday, December 14, 2007
Winter Storm WATCH - Saturday
Friday, December 14 -- 2:15PM
NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH effective for the St. Louis area from midnight tonight through midnight Saturday....
The NWS forecast is now for upwards of 6" in the STL area. Check out this nice little graphic:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lsx
I still say "show me the snow." But I will say that this is starting to look promising. For now, I am going to stick with my 2" prediction (see the post below for details). They have to prove me wrong with higher snow totals before I start to alter my approach.
Remember....I WANT it to snow like cats and dogs. Lets hope they are right!
I want to believe!
WD
NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH effective for the St. Louis area from midnight tonight through midnight Saturday....
The NWS forecast is now for upwards of 6" in the STL area. Check out this nice little graphic:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lsx
I still say "show me the snow." But I will say that this is starting to look promising. For now, I am going to stick with my 2" prediction (see the post below for details). They have to prove me wrong with higher snow totals before I start to alter my approach.
Remember....I WANT it to snow like cats and dogs. Lets hope they are right!
I want to believe!
WD
Winter Weather Event Friday-Saturday
Friday, December 14 -- 7:45AM
OK....with the event a little closer, the model predictions of snow are getting more consistent. Unfortunately, the total amounts are down for the STL area. The current thinking is 2-4" of snow by the time the system exits the region Saturday evening. The snow should come in 2 waves: an initial wave late Friday night into Saturday morning, and then a second wave Saturday afternoon/evening as we get the backside of the storm.
There certainly is enough cold air up through the "column" to make this all snow, and not some wintry mix. So that's good news.
With that, I will give my prediction.
40% Chance - 2" of snow
20% Chance - 3+" of snow
20% chance - 0-2" of snow
20% Chance - nothing, zilch, zippo
Discussion: I think our odds are good that we get snow out of this. I am just not impressed by this storm. Still, we will probably have a Snow Advisory issued sometime around mid-evening tonight. And honestly, anytime we get some snow before Christmas is always a good sign for things to come.
Hopefully I am wrong about the 2", and we get BLASTED.....Think Snow!
WD
OK....with the event a little closer, the model predictions of snow are getting more consistent. Unfortunately, the total amounts are down for the STL area. The current thinking is 2-4" of snow by the time the system exits the region Saturday evening. The snow should come in 2 waves: an initial wave late Friday night into Saturday morning, and then a second wave Saturday afternoon/evening as we get the backside of the storm.
There certainly is enough cold air up through the "column" to make this all snow, and not some wintry mix. So that's good news.
With that, I will give my prediction.
40% Chance - 2" of snow
20% Chance - 3+" of snow
20% chance - 0-2" of snow
20% Chance - nothing, zilch, zippo
Discussion: I think our odds are good that we get snow out of this. I am just not impressed by this storm. Still, we will probably have a Snow Advisory issued sometime around mid-evening tonight. And honestly, anytime we get some snow before Christmas is always a good sign for things to come.
Hopefully I am wrong about the 2", and we get BLASTED.....Think Snow!
WD
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Weekend Winter Storm
Thursday, December 13 -- 11:00PM
Significant Winter Storm to Effect St. Louis Area this Weekend...
OK. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. I do want to see another round of model runs, and another round of interpretations.
But...
As of about 9:30PM this evening, the consensus is that the storm track for the weekend storm should be a little farther north than previously thought. Also, the duration is looking to be a little longer: more of a late Friday night through early Sunday morning event. This, along with colder air spilling in from the northwest, spells snow for us. Possibly in the neighborhood of 6".
Like I said: let's not get ahead of ourselves. Heck, they have not even hoisted a Winter Storm Watch, so I don't want to get too excited yet....But I AM starting to get geeked up!
Stay tuned. I will put out a prediction tomorrow.
WD
Significant Winter Storm to Effect St. Louis Area this Weekend...
OK. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. I do want to see another round of model runs, and another round of interpretations.
But...
As of about 9:30PM this evening, the consensus is that the storm track for the weekend storm should be a little farther north than previously thought. Also, the duration is looking to be a little longer: more of a late Friday night through early Sunday morning event. This, along with colder air spilling in from the northwest, spells snow for us. Possibly in the neighborhood of 6".
Like I said: let's not get ahead of ourselves. Heck, they have not even hoisted a Winter Storm Watch, so I don't want to get too excited yet....But I AM starting to get geeked up!
Stay tuned. I will put out a prediction tomorrow.
WD
Winter Storm this weekend?
Thursday, December 13 -- 7:55AM
Confidence is growing that a significant Winter Storm will impact the STL area Friday night through Saturday evening.
We will be on the northern side of this storm, so if the models are correct, we should see all snow. Unfortunately at this time, exact snow amounts are difficult to pinpoint, as always.
It is not out of the question that we would see 6" of snow with this, but don't quote me on that. In fact, currently the 6" swath is south of STL. But storm tracks change all the time.
Stay tuned, and think snow!
WD
Confidence is growing that a significant Winter Storm will impact the STL area Friday night through Saturday evening.
We will be on the northern side of this storm, so if the models are correct, we should see all snow. Unfortunately at this time, exact snow amounts are difficult to pinpoint, as always.
It is not out of the question that we would see 6" of snow with this, but don't quote me on that. In fact, currently the 6" swath is south of STL. But storm tracks change all the time.
Stay tuned, and think snow!
WD
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Our First Taste of Winter
Thursday, December 6 -- 1:45PM
Winter Weather Advisory effective from 6PM to midnight this evening...
Hello all-
Well, the forecast sure changed in the last 18 hours. At 4PM yesterday, the forecast was for a little bit of rain, and now, we are forecasted to get a couple inches of snow/sleet.
With the precip right on our doorstep, I have a few hunches going:
Winter Weather Advisory effective from 6PM to midnight this evening...
Hello all-
Well, the forecast sure changed in the last 18 hours. At 4PM yesterday, the forecast was for a little bit of rain, and now, we are forecasted to get a couple inches of snow/sleet.
With the precip right on our doorstep, I have a few hunches going:
- The air is still quite dry, and will take a while to saturate. This will limit our chances of getting a lot of wintry precip
- We are just a shade too far south to get all snow. Quincy, IL will probably get 3-4" of all snow
- Not quite cold enough for the streets to get all that messy. Of course, don't let this stop you from doing your duty as a Saint Louisan of setting your hair on fire, and rushing out to the grocery store to get bread, milk, and eggs
- The timing is all wrong to close schools on Friday
My gut feeling is that the STL area is looking at about an inch of snow and sleet, mainly on the grassy areas. Maybe a little road hassle if you are out on the streets tonight. But nothing to really get bent out of shape about.
The good news....I think we are going to have an above average season in terms of wintry weather. It's just not going to happen tonight.
Think snow!
WD
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