Wednesday, January 30 -- 10:50PM
I've had a long day, and I will have another long one tomorrrow, so I am not going to bore you with my usual weather geekiness. As you might have surmised, the forecast calls for ...uh....snow!
The Drop Dead Prediction:
40% chance - Exactly 5 inches of snow
20% chance - 1-4" of snow
20% chance - more than 5 inches
20% chance - nada
The forecast and all of the models are calling for 7-9 inches. Looking at those models, I'm a little surprised they think that. A lot of the moisture may be sucked up by rain to our south along the Gulf Coast states. For us...If we get anything, it should all be snow. That's the good news.
I think 5" should do it. And 5" is enough to close schools.
Enjoy the day off on Friday, suckas!
-WD
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Winter Storm Watch Thursday Afternoon/Evening
Wednesday, January 30 -- 10:45AM
Winter Storm Watch Thursday....
All signs continue to point toward a major winter storm for the country's midsection. The latest model runs have the heaviest snow bands just south and east of the STL metro area:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lsx
Now, the wonderful thing about forecast models is that they are fraught with error. Let's hope that the storm track is about 25 miles farther north than currently predicted, and that we fall within that band of heavy snow!
Either way, I think it is fairly safe to predict 4-5" of snow in the STL area. Two issues I see:
Winter Storm Watch Thursday....
All signs continue to point toward a major winter storm for the country's midsection. The latest model runs have the heaviest snow bands just south and east of the STL metro area:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lsx
Now, the wonderful thing about forecast models is that they are fraught with error. Let's hope that the storm track is about 25 miles farther north than currently predicted, and that we fall within that band of heavy snow!
Either way, I think it is fairly safe to predict 4-5" of snow in the STL area. Two issues I see:
- Timing....in terms of whether this storm will cancel schools. Per current thinking, most of this snow should fall before midnight Thursday. If that is the case, and we only get 4-5", it may be that the roads can be reasonably cleared before the morning rush hour. Then again, we have not had a severe winter, and many schools have some built-in snow days still remaining in reserve. Hmmmm.....
- Tight snow gradient....The further Northwest you travel, the amount of snow will quickly diminish to zero. For instance, if you live in Bowling Green (sorry about that, if you do, for many reasons), you might not see a flake out of this. How far South will this "zero line" turn out to be? It's still possible that STL will miss out completely....not likely, but possible.
I will get out my Drop Dead Prediction once the 4PM soundings from the NWS come out. At that point, I will have enough of the data I need.
Think Snow!!
-WD
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Snow, Baby. Snow.
Tuesday, January 29 -- 7:00PM
What a crazy day. At noon, it was 73 degrees (the new record high for this date), and by 4:30PM the temperature had plummeted to 23. For all of you math-impaired types out there (like the wife), that's a 50 degree drop in a little over 4 hours. That's not a record temperature drop, but that's still just plain nutty. And did you get a load of this freaking WIND? All I can say is WOW!
This bodes well for the upcoming winter storm that will effect the region Thursday night into Friday. Plenty of cold air in place...plenty of Pacific moisture combining with Gulf moisture headed our way...All indications are that this storm will have a heavy band of 8-10 inches of snow somewhere in the region....the million-dollar question is, "where will that happen?"
Answer: I have no freakin idea. 50 miles north or south of a given line could be the difference between a ton of snow, and just a few flakes.
But...I said it yesterday, and I will say it again: if I was a betting man, I would lay odds on widespread school closings in the STL metro area for Friday. I'd throw a buck down on that!
When I know more, I will post an update.
Til next time.....Think Snow!
-WD
What a crazy day. At noon, it was 73 degrees (the new record high for this date), and by 4:30PM the temperature had plummeted to 23. For all of you math-impaired types out there (like the wife), that's a 50 degree drop in a little over 4 hours. That's not a record temperature drop, but that's still just plain nutty. And did you get a load of this freaking WIND? All I can say is WOW!
This bodes well for the upcoming winter storm that will effect the region Thursday night into Friday. Plenty of cold air in place...plenty of Pacific moisture combining with Gulf moisture headed our way...All indications are that this storm will have a heavy band of 8-10 inches of snow somewhere in the region....the million-dollar question is, "where will that happen?"
Answer: I have no freakin idea. 50 miles north or south of a given line could be the difference between a ton of snow, and just a few flakes.
But...I said it yesterday, and I will say it again: if I was a betting man, I would lay odds on widespread school closings in the STL metro area for Friday. I'd throw a buck down on that!
When I know more, I will post an update.
Til next time.....Think Snow!
-WD
Monday, January 28, 2008
Gear Up, Suckas! Winter is Comin' back with a Vengeance
Monday, January 28 -- 6:00PM
All models are pointing to a major winter storm for late this week. This storm, if it materializes, will be a "Southern Storm," capable of bringing heavy snow to our area. Oh, YEAH!
With cold air up over Alberta headed our way, precipitation from this storm (still currently over the Pacific) should fall as all-snow.
Batten down the hatches! If I was a betting man, I would lay 50/50 odds that schools will be cancelled Friday. That's what you wanted to hear, wasn't it?!?
Stay tuned.
-WD
All models are pointing to a major winter storm for late this week. This storm, if it materializes, will be a "Southern Storm," capable of bringing heavy snow to our area. Oh, YEAH!
With cold air up over Alberta headed our way, precipitation from this storm (still currently over the Pacific) should fall as all-snow.
Batten down the hatches! If I was a betting man, I would lay 50/50 odds that schools will be cancelled Friday. That's what you wanted to hear, wasn't it?!?
Stay tuned.
-WD
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)