Winter Storm Monday Night into Tuesday

Monday, January 26 -- 8:00AM

Winter Storm Warning effective from 6PM Monday until 6PM Tuesday...

Greetings, one and all!

All indications are that we are in store for a 2 phased Winter Storm that should dump between 4"-8" inches on the STL area. The weather models have been consistent in advertising this event for the last 5 days or so, only differing in the timing and track of the storm. The models are pretty closely aligned now.

The "good" details:

• Plenty of cold air in place from the ground levels to the upper atmosphere. All you have had to do is poke your head outside for the last few days to know this is true.
  
• Abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This should actually create a warm air "wedge" in the column of cold air, creating a period of sleet.
  
• 2 phased storm. First phase should begin this evening -- and be the bigger of the two phases -- dumping 3-5" on our area. Phase 2 should begin Tuesday morning and bring us another 1-3"
• High snow-to-water ratio of 15:1. This will be a powdery type of snow. It won't take a lot of moisture to get a good amount of snow.
  
• The timing of this storm is perfect if one is interested in School closings. The main thrust of the storm will be overnight tonight, with a reinforcement of snow tomorrow morning hampering the efforts to get the roads in good shape for drivers.

The details that worry me:

• St. Louis and St. Charles counties are part of the line that form the northern limit of the Winter Storm Warning. The counties north of us are only under a lower-threat "Winter Weather Advisory." So we are not exactly in the "bullseye" area of this system. Wih a storm that approaches us from the Southwest U.S., the worry is that there is always a tight "snow gradient," meaning that some place will get 8 inches of snow, but 30 miles north of this point will not even get a flake. That could happen to us here, though I don't think it will.
  
• This should be a long-lived storm system. That can be both good and bad. If you have only light snow for 24 straight hours, road crews can cope with that. So hopefully the scenario plays out as forecasted, with a two pronged snow attack.
• This is not exactly the "Storm of the Century" here. Don't look for a Day After Tomorrow scenario. There will not be widespread pillaging by Norse Vikings as the local TV weather people tend to portray. This will be a nice-sized storm, but nothing crazy.

My prediction is this: 6 inches of snow, and widespread school closings.

So break out those tobaggons, and think snow!

I will update this blog as necessary.

-WD