My Drop Dead prediction

Wednesday, January 30 -- 10:50PM

I've had a long day, and I will have another long one tomorrrow, so I am not going to bore you with my usual weather geekiness. As you might have surmised, the forecast calls for ...uh....snow!

The Drop Dead Prediction:
40% chance - Exactly 5 inches of snow
20% chance - 1-4" of snow
20% chance - more than 5 inches
20% chance - nada

The forecast and all of the models are calling for 7-9 inches. Looking at those models, I'm a little surprised they think that. A lot of the moisture may be sucked up by rain to our south along the Gulf Coast states. For us...If we get anything, it should all be snow. That's the good news.

I think 5" should do it. And 5" is enough to close schools.

Enjoy the day off on Friday, suckas!

-WD

Winter Storm Watch Thursday Afternoon/Evening

Wednesday, January 30 -- 10:45AM

Winter Storm Watch Thursday....

All signs continue to point toward a major winter storm for the country's midsection. The latest model runs have the heaviest snow bands just south and east of the STL metro area:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lsx

Now, the wonderful thing about forecast models is that they are fraught with error. Let's hope that the storm track is about 25 miles farther north than currently predicted, and that we fall within that band of heavy snow!

Either way, I think it is fairly safe to predict 4-5" of snow in the STL area. Two issues I see:

1. Timing....in terms of whether this storm will cancel schools. Per current thinking, most of this snow should fall before midnight Thursday. If that is the case, and we only get 4-5", it may be that the roads can be reasonably cleared before the morning rush hour. Then again, we have not had a severe winter, and many schools have some built-in snow days still remaining in reserve. Hmmmm.....
2. Tight snow gradient....The further Northwest you travel, the amount of snow will quickly diminish to zero. For instance, if you live in Bowling Green (sorry about that, if you do, for many reasons), you might not see a flake out of this. How far South will this "zero line" turn out to be? It's still possible that STL will miss out completely....not likely, but possible.

I will get out my Drop Dead Prediction once the 4PM soundings from the NWS come out. At that point, I will have enough of the data I need.

Think Snow!!

-WD