Friday, December 14 -- 5:40PM
The NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for midnight tonight through midnight Saturday...
The forecast is now for 6-8" of the fluffy stuff in the STL metro area. Points southwest of us...Rolla for instance....are forecasted to receive 6-12". Looking at the natioanal radar, you can see the precip getting ready to push into Southwest Missouri.
Here we go! Let's hope its true!!
I want to believe!
WD
Friday, December 14, 2007
Winter Storm WATCH - Saturday
Friday, December 14 -- 2:15PM
NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH effective for the St. Louis area from midnight tonight through midnight Saturday....
The NWS forecast is now for upwards of 6" in the STL area. Check out this nice little graphic:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lsx
I still say "show me the snow." But I will say that this is starting to look promising. For now, I am going to stick with my 2" prediction (see the post below for details). They have to prove me wrong with higher snow totals before I start to alter my approach.
Remember....I WANT it to snow like cats and dogs. Lets hope they are right!
I want to believe!
WD
NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH effective for the St. Louis area from midnight tonight through midnight Saturday....
The NWS forecast is now for upwards of 6" in the STL area. Check out this nice little graphic:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lsx
I still say "show me the snow." But I will say that this is starting to look promising. For now, I am going to stick with my 2" prediction (see the post below for details). They have to prove me wrong with higher snow totals before I start to alter my approach.
Remember....I WANT it to snow like cats and dogs. Lets hope they are right!
I want to believe!
WD
Winter Weather Event Friday-Saturday
Friday, December 14 -- 7:45AM
OK....with the event a little closer, the model predictions of snow are getting more consistent. Unfortunately, the total amounts are down for the STL area. The current thinking is 2-4" of snow by the time the system exits the region Saturday evening. The snow should come in 2 waves: an initial wave late Friday night into Saturday morning, and then a second wave Saturday afternoon/evening as we get the backside of the storm.
There certainly is enough cold air up through the "column" to make this all snow, and not some wintry mix. So that's good news.
With that, I will give my prediction.
40% Chance - 2" of snow
20% Chance - 3+" of snow
20% chance - 0-2" of snow
20% Chance - nothing, zilch, zippo
Discussion: I think our odds are good that we get snow out of this. I am just not impressed by this storm. Still, we will probably have a Snow Advisory issued sometime around mid-evening tonight. And honestly, anytime we get some snow before Christmas is always a good sign for things to come.
Hopefully I am wrong about the 2", and we get BLASTED.....Think Snow!
WD
OK....with the event a little closer, the model predictions of snow are getting more consistent. Unfortunately, the total amounts are down for the STL area. The current thinking is 2-4" of snow by the time the system exits the region Saturday evening. The snow should come in 2 waves: an initial wave late Friday night into Saturday morning, and then a second wave Saturday afternoon/evening as we get the backside of the storm.
There certainly is enough cold air up through the "column" to make this all snow, and not some wintry mix. So that's good news.
With that, I will give my prediction.
40% Chance - 2" of snow
20% Chance - 3+" of snow
20% chance - 0-2" of snow
20% Chance - nothing, zilch, zippo
Discussion: I think our odds are good that we get snow out of this. I am just not impressed by this storm. Still, we will probably have a Snow Advisory issued sometime around mid-evening tonight. And honestly, anytime we get some snow before Christmas is always a good sign for things to come.
Hopefully I am wrong about the 2", and we get BLASTED.....Think Snow!
WD
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Weekend Winter Storm
Thursday, December 13 -- 11:00PM
Significant Winter Storm to Effect St. Louis Area this Weekend...
OK. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. I do want to see another round of model runs, and another round of interpretations.
But...
As of about 9:30PM this evening, the consensus is that the storm track for the weekend storm should be a little farther north than previously thought. Also, the duration is looking to be a little longer: more of a late Friday night through early Sunday morning event. This, along with colder air spilling in from the northwest, spells snow for us. Possibly in the neighborhood of 6".
Like I said: let's not get ahead of ourselves. Heck, they have not even hoisted a Winter Storm Watch, so I don't want to get too excited yet....But I AM starting to get geeked up!
Stay tuned. I will put out a prediction tomorrow.
WD
Significant Winter Storm to Effect St. Louis Area this Weekend...
OK. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. I do want to see another round of model runs, and another round of interpretations.
But...
As of about 9:30PM this evening, the consensus is that the storm track for the weekend storm should be a little farther north than previously thought. Also, the duration is looking to be a little longer: more of a late Friday night through early Sunday morning event. This, along with colder air spilling in from the northwest, spells snow for us. Possibly in the neighborhood of 6".
Like I said: let's not get ahead of ourselves. Heck, they have not even hoisted a Winter Storm Watch, so I don't want to get too excited yet....But I AM starting to get geeked up!
Stay tuned. I will put out a prediction tomorrow.
WD
Winter Storm this weekend?
Thursday, December 13 -- 7:55AM
Confidence is growing that a significant Winter Storm will impact the STL area Friday night through Saturday evening.
We will be on the northern side of this storm, so if the models are correct, we should see all snow. Unfortunately at this time, exact snow amounts are difficult to pinpoint, as always.
It is not out of the question that we would see 6" of snow with this, but don't quote me on that. In fact, currently the 6" swath is south of STL. But storm tracks change all the time.
Stay tuned, and think snow!
WD
Confidence is growing that a significant Winter Storm will impact the STL area Friday night through Saturday evening.
We will be on the northern side of this storm, so if the models are correct, we should see all snow. Unfortunately at this time, exact snow amounts are difficult to pinpoint, as always.
It is not out of the question that we would see 6" of snow with this, but don't quote me on that. In fact, currently the 6" swath is south of STL. But storm tracks change all the time.
Stay tuned, and think snow!
WD
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Our First Taste of Winter
Thursday, December 6 -- 1:45PM
Winter Weather Advisory effective from 6PM to midnight this evening...
Hello all-
Well, the forecast sure changed in the last 18 hours. At 4PM yesterday, the forecast was for a little bit of rain, and now, we are forecasted to get a couple inches of snow/sleet.
With the precip right on our doorstep, I have a few hunches going:
Winter Weather Advisory effective from 6PM to midnight this evening...
Hello all-
Well, the forecast sure changed in the last 18 hours. At 4PM yesterday, the forecast was for a little bit of rain, and now, we are forecasted to get a couple inches of snow/sleet.
With the precip right on our doorstep, I have a few hunches going:
- The air is still quite dry, and will take a while to saturate. This will limit our chances of getting a lot of wintry precip
- We are just a shade too far south to get all snow. Quincy, IL will probably get 3-4" of all snow
- Not quite cold enough for the streets to get all that messy. Of course, don't let this stop you from doing your duty as a Saint Louisan of setting your hair on fire, and rushing out to the grocery store to get bread, milk, and eggs
- The timing is all wrong to close schools on Friday
My gut feeling is that the STL area is looking at about an inch of snow and sleet, mainly on the grassy areas. Maybe a little road hassle if you are out on the streets tonight. But nothing to really get bent out of shape about.
The good news....I think we are going to have an above average season in terms of wintry weather. It's just not going to happen tonight.
Think snow!
WD
Thursday, November 29, 2007
The Rainmaker -- Weekend Storm
Thursday, November 29 -- 3:45PM
With the exception of a little bit of freezing rain and/or sleet at the storm's onset, this will be a Rainmaker.
Nothing to see here! Please disperse!
-WD
With the exception of a little bit of freezing rain and/or sleet at the storm's onset, this will be a Rainmaker.
Nothing to see here! Please disperse!
-WD
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Weekend Storm
Tuesday, November 27 -- 4:45PM
With the storm still a full 4-5 days out, the models are now predicting that it will be just a smidge too warm to have a full-blown winter storm in STL over the weekend. All I can say is....that SUCKS.
But there is still hope. The moisture seems to be in good phase with the needed lift in the atmosphere for the event, and all we need is for the cold air to get here a little sooner.
I will update as I get a better feel for this. The one thing I can say is, this should be a weekend storm, and will not likely effect school closings, regardless of the nature of the precipitation.
-WD
With the storm still a full 4-5 days out, the models are now predicting that it will be just a smidge too warm to have a full-blown winter storm in STL over the weekend. All I can say is....that SUCKS.
But there is still hope. The moisture seems to be in good phase with the needed lift in the atmosphere for the event, and all we need is for the cold air to get here a little sooner.
I will update as I get a better feel for this. The one thing I can say is, this should be a weekend storm, and will not likely effect school closings, regardless of the nature of the precipitation.
-WD
Monday, November 26, 2007
Saturday/Sunday Winter Storm?
Monday, November 26 -- 4:20PM
Hmmmm. Some promising wording in the NWS Forecast Discussion this afternoon, mentioning winter precip for the late weekend period....
Then again, using a longterm weather model has about as much accuracy as using a sundial on a cloudy day, so don't get excited quite yet. But things may get interesting!
Stay tuned.
-WD
Hmmmm. Some promising wording in the NWS Forecast Discussion this afternoon, mentioning winter precip for the late weekend period....
Then again, using a longterm weather model has about as much accuracy as using a sundial on a cloudy day, so don't get excited quite yet. But things may get interesting!
Stay tuned.
-WD
Winter Storm Season is Upon Us!
Hello all-
In meteorological terms, Winter in the northern hemisphere encompasses the months of December, January and February. But anyone who remembers (and how could you forget?) the Great Ice Storm of 2006, which occurred on November 30 of last year, knows that winter weather can happen in St. Louis just about anytime between Halloween and "tax day," April 15th.
With that being said, its time to bring my Winter Storm blog out of hibernation.
I will update this blog anytime winter weather appears to be in our forecast.
So sit back, and think snow!
-WD
In meteorological terms, Winter in the northern hemisphere encompasses the months of December, January and February. But anyone who remembers (and how could you forget?) the Great Ice Storm of 2006, which occurred on November 30 of last year, knows that winter weather can happen in St. Louis just about anytime between Halloween and "tax day," April 15th.
With that being said, its time to bring my Winter Storm blog out of hibernation.
I will update this blog anytime winter weather appears to be in our forecast.
So sit back, and think snow!
-WD
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Wrap-Up: Winter Storm of February 13
Wednesday, February 14, 8:20AM--
Winter Storm Number 4 of the 2006-2007 season was worse than I thought it would be. I really felt that the NWS had over-estimated the cold air intrusion that would wrap around the backside of the storm, that we were just a shade too far south to see any snow out of it, etc.
Yesterday morning at around 6:30AM, as I drove to work in a steady rain with the temperature about 37F, I was gloating about how I had been right to not predict snow...well, you know what they say about not counting your chickens before they have hatched. In downtown STL around noon-time yesterday, we experienced near-blizzard conditions for roughly 30 minutes (blizzard criteria are winds of at least 35 MPH, and visibility reduced to 1/4 mile or less by falling or blowing snow, and all of this persisting for at least 3 hours). I have not seen it snow that hard in STL in years...luckily (or unluckily, depending on one's perspective), those conditions did not last for too long. Further to our northeast, from a swath from roughly Peoria to north of Indianapolis, Blizzard Warnings persisted through the day, with 1 foot or greater snowfall amounts common.
What was I right about?
Well, not much. Yesterday morning, it sure looked like I was going to be right, and the NWS was going to owe everyone a big apology for enticing school closings, causing panic, etc. I was almost right, but being "almost right" doesn't count for JACK. That's like saying "the Rams ALMOST won the Superbowl in 2001." No one cares about "almost;" they only care about who was right. Chalk one up for the NWS. They are the true experts, afterall. To be honest, I am glad they were right. If they had mis-predicted yet another storm, it would have further eroded the public's confidence in them. As it turned out, the school closings were certainly justified.
So, until the next storm......
Caw! Caw! (Munch! Munch!)....that's me eating some crow.
-WD
Winter Storm Number 4 of the 2006-2007 season was worse than I thought it would be. I really felt that the NWS had over-estimated the cold air intrusion that would wrap around the backside of the storm, that we were just a shade too far south to see any snow out of it, etc.
Yesterday morning at around 6:30AM, as I drove to work in a steady rain with the temperature about 37F, I was gloating about how I had been right to not predict snow...well, you know what they say about not counting your chickens before they have hatched. In downtown STL around noon-time yesterday, we experienced near-blizzard conditions for roughly 30 minutes (blizzard criteria are winds of at least 35 MPH, and visibility reduced to 1/4 mile or less by falling or blowing snow, and all of this persisting for at least 3 hours). I have not seen it snow that hard in STL in years...luckily (or unluckily, depending on one's perspective), those conditions did not last for too long. Further to our northeast, from a swath from roughly Peoria to north of Indianapolis, Blizzard Warnings persisted through the day, with 1 foot or greater snowfall amounts common.
What was I right about?
Well, not much. Yesterday morning, it sure looked like I was going to be right, and the NWS was going to owe everyone a big apology for enticing school closings, causing panic, etc. I was almost right, but being "almost right" doesn't count for JACK. That's like saying "the Rams ALMOST won the Superbowl in 2001." No one cares about "almost;" they only care about who was right. Chalk one up for the NWS. They are the true experts, afterall. To be honest, I am glad they were right. If they had mis-predicted yet another storm, it would have further eroded the public's confidence in them. As it turned out, the school closings were certainly justified.
So, until the next storm......
Caw! Caw! (Munch! Munch!)....that's me eating some crow.
-WD
Monday, February 12, 2007
Is Weatherdork Gonna Go Down in Flames?
Monday, February 12, 4:30PM--
WINTER STORM WARNING in effect until 4PM Tuesday...
The NWS released its 4PM zone forecast, and has upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a much-more-serious Winter Storm Warning. The call now is for 5-8" of snow by the time it winds down tomorrow afternoon.
But I'll tell you what...I am sticking to my guns on this one. Looking back at my "Farmington Rule," Farmington's under a Flood Watch instead of some type of Winter weather watch...because this will be all rain for them, with maybe a little snow.
I think the NWS has screwed up the "freeze line" yet again, and this will be mostly a rain event for STL. This storm has all of the hallmarks of a typical Egg-On-Their-Face wrong call. We'll see.
Funny business, trying to predict the future.
Remember....I WANT it to snow! So, I look at this like a win-win for me: I either get to be right, or I get to be happy!
Think snow!
-WD
WINTER STORM WARNING in effect until 4PM Tuesday...
The NWS released its 4PM zone forecast, and has upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a much-more-serious Winter Storm Warning. The call now is for 5-8" of snow by the time it winds down tomorrow afternoon.
But I'll tell you what...I am sticking to my guns on this one. Looking back at my "Farmington Rule," Farmington's under a Flood Watch instead of some type of Winter weather watch...because this will be all rain for them, with maybe a little snow.
I think the NWS has screwed up the "freeze line" yet again, and this will be mostly a rain event for STL. This storm has all of the hallmarks of a typical Egg-On-Their-Face wrong call. We'll see.
Funny business, trying to predict the future.
Remember....I WANT it to snow! So, I look at this like a win-win for me: I either get to be right, or I get to be happy!
Think snow!
-WD
Updated NWS forecast
Monday, February 12, 1:00PM--
Right after I issued my "Drop Dead Prediction," the NWS updated their forecast, and the new forecast is more dire than the previous one.
They are now calling for 3-6" of snow by the time the storm ends tomorrow. And while they have not upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a typically more-serious Snow Advisory (and 3-6" of snow WOULD meet the criteria for a Snow Advisory), they appear more confident that we will be getting quite a bit of snow here in STL.
Did I make a mistake in thinking this will mostly be a rain-maker? Maybe. But I believe in making a prediction and sticking to my guns, right or wrong.
So let's hope for the best, and that by this time tomorrow, we have 6" of the white stuff on the ground, and I am eating some crow!
-WD
Right after I issued my "Drop Dead Prediction," the NWS updated their forecast, and the new forecast is more dire than the previous one.
They are now calling for 3-6" of snow by the time the storm ends tomorrow. And while they have not upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a typically more-serious Snow Advisory (and 3-6" of snow WOULD meet the criteria for a Snow Advisory), they appear more confident that we will be getting quite a bit of snow here in STL.
Did I make a mistake in thinking this will mostly be a rain-maker? Maybe. But I believe in making a prediction and sticking to my guns, right or wrong.
So let's hope for the best, and that by this time tomorrow, we have 6" of the white stuff on the ground, and I am eating some crow!
-WD
Winter Storm? I'm thinking NOT
Monday, February 12, 11:30AM--
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 12 PM CST Tuesday...
Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction:
60% chance - Rain, with some spotty, slushy snow/sleet/glazing. Messy, but nothing dire.
15% chance - more than 3", but less than 6" snow. School Cancellations.
15% chance - 0-3" of snow/sleet
10% chance - nothing
Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium-High
Onset: Rain to arrive sometime this afternoon/evening....probably sometime after 3PM. It should be light to moderate RAIN. Snow, if any, will come later this evening.
Discussion: Enh....this system is nothing to get all that bent out of shape about. The forecasting from the NWS broke about every rule I have when it comes to making my predictions....that's why I don't think we will get much winter weather here....at least not enough to cause traffic havoc and massive school closings. Here are a few rules from my playbook that made me throw red flags, and doubt their forecast:
Rule: The NWS day-of-storm temperature forecast is always too cold for reality; add 3-5 degrees to what they predicted. The forecasted high for tomorrow is 30 degrees. I just know from experience that this is probably 5 degrees too cold. So lets call it 35 instead. Since water freezes at 32F, too much of this precip will fall as rain.
Rule: Saint Louis is just a little too far East, and a little too far South to get hammered with snow. For whatever reason, geography is against us here in STL. We are about 100 miles too far east to get the great "conveyer belt" moisture surge from the Gulf of Mexico, and about 100 miles too far south to get cold enough air to cause winter-type precipitation. That conspires against us perfectly for this storm system.
Rule: Never sound the alarm until you see the flakes/drops falling from the sky. Last night, the NWS issued a freezing rain advisory in effect from 6AM until 12 Noon today. Do you see any freezing rain? No. How about plain-old rain? Nope. The NWS stoked the panic flames before there was any reason to. Whenever they are THAT wrong about something, I always doubt the whole forecast.
Rule: If thunderstorms are predicted south of St. Louis, we won't get that much moisture here. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. While this does not mean it is impossible for moisture to reach our area, it is my experience that thunderstorms south of Missouri tend to steal the moisture that was headed our way.
Rule: Never make dire winter forecasts for St. Louis based solely on computer models. The NWS has been predicting this winter storm for 4-5 days now, well before the low pressure system ever even came ashore in California. It looks like the models were at least partially right here, though. It was a fairly good prediction....the models were just a little too cold.
Rule: When forecasting a Southwest Storm, never predict snow for St. Louis unless you are predicting snow for Farmington. This rule is related to the "STL is a little too far south" rule. But it is my experience that the forecasters wrongly predict where that "freezing line" will be, putting that line 50-100 miles too far south. So, my rule of thumb is if Farmington doesn't also have snow in the forecast, then they probably don't have a good handle on where that freezing line will really be, which means mostly rain for STL. And while Farmington has snow in the forecast for tomorrow....well, I just don't think they're right!
Anyway, there you have it. G-d, I want to be wrong....I HOPE I am wrong...but I think we just have a rain-maker on our hands.
-WD
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 12 PM CST Tuesday...
Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction:
60% chance - Rain, with some spotty, slushy snow/sleet/glazing. Messy, but nothing dire.
15% chance - more than 3", but less than 6" snow. School Cancellations.
15% chance - 0-3" of snow/sleet
10% chance - nothing
Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium-High
Onset: Rain to arrive sometime this afternoon/evening....probably sometime after 3PM. It should be light to moderate RAIN. Snow, if any, will come later this evening.
Discussion: Enh....this system is nothing to get all that bent out of shape about. The forecasting from the NWS broke about every rule I have when it comes to making my predictions....that's why I don't think we will get much winter weather here....at least not enough to cause traffic havoc and massive school closings. Here are a few rules from my playbook that made me throw red flags, and doubt their forecast:
Rule: The NWS day-of-storm temperature forecast is always too cold for reality; add 3-5 degrees to what they predicted. The forecasted high for tomorrow is 30 degrees. I just know from experience that this is probably 5 degrees too cold. So lets call it 35 instead. Since water freezes at 32F, too much of this precip will fall as rain.
Rule: Saint Louis is just a little too far East, and a little too far South to get hammered with snow. For whatever reason, geography is against us here in STL. We are about 100 miles too far east to get the great "conveyer belt" moisture surge from the Gulf of Mexico, and about 100 miles too far south to get cold enough air to cause winter-type precipitation. That conspires against us perfectly for this storm system.
Rule: Never sound the alarm until you see the flakes/drops falling from the sky. Last night, the NWS issued a freezing rain advisory in effect from 6AM until 12 Noon today. Do you see any freezing rain? No. How about plain-old rain? Nope. The NWS stoked the panic flames before there was any reason to. Whenever they are THAT wrong about something, I always doubt the whole forecast.
Rule: If thunderstorms are predicted south of St. Louis, we won't get that much moisture here. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. While this does not mean it is impossible for moisture to reach our area, it is my experience that thunderstorms south of Missouri tend to steal the moisture that was headed our way.
Rule: Never make dire winter forecasts for St. Louis based solely on computer models. The NWS has been predicting this winter storm for 4-5 days now, well before the low pressure system ever even came ashore in California. It looks like the models were at least partially right here, though. It was a fairly good prediction....the models were just a little too cold.
Rule: When forecasting a Southwest Storm, never predict snow for St. Louis unless you are predicting snow for Farmington. This rule is related to the "STL is a little too far south" rule. But it is my experience that the forecasters wrongly predict where that "freezing line" will be, putting that line 50-100 miles too far south. So, my rule of thumb is if Farmington doesn't also have snow in the forecast, then they probably don't have a good handle on where that freezing line will really be, which means mostly rain for STL. And while Farmington has snow in the forecast for tomorrow....well, I just don't think they're right!
Anyway, there you have it. G-d, I want to be wrong....I HOPE I am wrong...but I think we just have a rain-maker on our hands.
-WD
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Wrap-Up: Snow Storm of January 20th
Sunday, January 21, 9:00AM--
Winter Storm Number 3 of the 2006-2007 season was big on promise, but not much on delivery. The predictions by the TV meteorologist types was for 5-6" of snow, creating a veritable Winter Wonderland. I mean, get over yourself already. 5-6 inches? Do you think we live at a ski resort? C'mon, you jerks, get your act together....
What was I right about?
Winter Storm Number 3 of the 2006-2007 season was big on promise, but not much on delivery. The predictions by the TV meteorologist types was for 5-6" of snow, creating a veritable Winter Wonderland. I mean, get over yourself already. 5-6 inches? Do you think we live at a ski resort? C'mon, you jerks, get your act together....
What was I right about?
- Well, pretty much everything. I said 3" of snow, and we got 3" of snow at my house, with a touch of sleet mixed in.
- I was right not to get caught in the hype early on before the storm started, getting all crazy about predictions of 6" of snow.
- I was right there wouldn't be any freezing rain with this storm, but that was sort of a no-brainer, so I don't get too much credit for that one.
- I was right that the Winter Storm Watch would be cancelled, and replaced with a Snow Advisory.
I guess I am going to have to snow-blow the driveway, and the boys will get a little sledding in today, but only barely.....What ever happened to the 12" snow storms of my youth? The last time we had more than 10" of snow in one storm was 1993. That, weather fans, is freakin' depressing.
Til the next storm....
-WD
Friday, January 19, 2007
Are you ready for some Snow?
Friday, January 19, 9:00PM--
Winter Storm Watch For Saturday night thru Sunday morning....
Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction (For SATURDAY EVENING thru Sunday Midday):
60% chance - 3" of snow
15% chance - more than 3", but less than 7"
15% chance - 0-3" of snow
10% chance - nothing
Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium
Onset: Snow will probably start in the evening Saturday. By midnight, we will probably see some light-to-moderate periods of snow. By Sunday midday, look for 3 inches of snow to have accumulated.
Discussion: Enh....this system is nothing to get all that bent out of shape about. Yeah, we'll get a nice little shot of snow with it....Hell, snow is WELCOME compared to the freezing rain of last week's storm. NO freezing rain with this event, just snow for us. Latest indications are that the system will be on the decline by the time it gets to us, and the air is so dry (is your skin all cracked like mine is??? Ugh) that the lower levels near the ground may take awhile to saturate, so I don't think we will really get much more than 3". No school cancellations (except maybe area Sunday schools) with this one. Sorry, weather fans...
I expect we will have a SNOW ADVISORY (when the NWS is expecting around 3-5" of snow) issued sometime tomorrow, and the Winter Storm Watch will be cancelled instead of being upgraded to a warning.
Hope I am wrong, and we get more! I love the white stuff...
-WD
Winter Storm Watch For Saturday night thru Sunday morning....
Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction (For SATURDAY EVENING thru Sunday Midday):
60% chance - 3" of snow
15% chance - more than 3", but less than 7"
15% chance - 0-3" of snow
10% chance - nothing
Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium
Onset: Snow will probably start in the evening Saturday. By midnight, we will probably see some light-to-moderate periods of snow. By Sunday midday, look for 3 inches of snow to have accumulated.
Discussion: Enh....this system is nothing to get all that bent out of shape about. Yeah, we'll get a nice little shot of snow with it....Hell, snow is WELCOME compared to the freezing rain of last week's storm. NO freezing rain with this event, just snow for us. Latest indications are that the system will be on the decline by the time it gets to us, and the air is so dry (is your skin all cracked like mine is??? Ugh) that the lower levels near the ground may take awhile to saturate, so I don't think we will really get much more than 3". No school cancellations (except maybe area Sunday schools) with this one. Sorry, weather fans...
I expect we will have a SNOW ADVISORY (when the NWS is expecting around 3-5" of snow) issued sometime tomorrow, and the Winter Storm Watch will be cancelled instead of being upgraded to a warning.
Hope I am wrong, and we get more! I love the white stuff...
-WD
Saturday, January 13, 2007
Tree branches down....
Saturday, January 13 1:30PM--
I had to go feed my Mom's cats, as she is out of town....but this doubled as an opportunity to take a mini-tour of the area to survey Ice Storm damage.
Do you ever think about how a tree might fall on your car while you are driving? No? Me neither, because the chances are probably one-in-a-million of it ever happening. But this morning, the chances felt a lot more like one-in-one hundred, or one-in-fifty.
In our neighborhood, boughs were drooping over the road everywhere, with that depressed look about them that I tend to have when I am thinking about my mortgage....you had the feeling that if a bird were to land on one of those branches as you passed underneath, you were going to be talking to your insurance company later today.
Along Ladue Road, there was sawdust in numerous places... evidence that trees or large branches has just recently been chainsawed away to re-open the road. And on the way home, a road crew was busy removing a newly fallen branch that had not been there just 20 minutes before, when I had been coming from the other direction...
What does all of this mean? Well, I think this could spell serious trouble tonight and tomorrow for these poor trees, that got their collective wooden asses kicked during the November 30th storm, and then again last night. If we get a lot more Freezing rain (and we are forecast to get just that, tonight and tomorrow), the downed trees could number in the thousands, and power outages could be extreme.
-WD
I had to go feed my Mom's cats, as she is out of town....but this doubled as an opportunity to take a mini-tour of the area to survey Ice Storm damage.
Do you ever think about how a tree might fall on your car while you are driving? No? Me neither, because the chances are probably one-in-a-million of it ever happening. But this morning, the chances felt a lot more like one-in-one hundred, or one-in-fifty.
In our neighborhood, boughs were drooping over the road everywhere, with that depressed look about them that I tend to have when I am thinking about my mortgage....you had the feeling that if a bird were to land on one of those branches as you passed underneath, you were going to be talking to your insurance company later today.
Along Ladue Road, there was sawdust in numerous places... evidence that trees or large branches has just recently been chainsawed away to re-open the road. And on the way home, a road crew was busy removing a newly fallen branch that had not been there just 20 minutes before, when I had been coming from the other direction...
What does all of this mean? Well, I think this could spell serious trouble tonight and tomorrow for these poor trees, that got their collective wooden asses kicked during the November 30th storm, and then again last night. If we get a lot more Freezing rain (and we are forecast to get just that, tonight and tomorrow), the downed trees could number in the thousands, and power outages could be extreme.
-WD
Friday Night Ice Storm Wrap up
Saturday, January 13 10:00AM --
We sure dodged a bullet with this one, and I get to eat some crow. I feel a little sheepish about not trusting my initial instincts, and buying into the NWS hype about how bad this round of freezing rain was going to be.
At my house, we got about 1/4" of ice on the trees, but for the most part, our streets look like they would after a moderate rain event....namely, no ice to speak of. (Incidentally, this result is the one I gave the MOST weight to in my "Drop Dead Forecast." I am a sucker for not sticking to that. Oh, well; live and learn. )
So, I was dead-wrong about 3/4" of ice, and the streets being like a skating rink. The artic air didn't intrude quickly enough, and I am a bonehead for going against everything I know, and thinking that the arctic air WOULD make it here. It never does.
Still should be a busy weekend....
As of 10:00AM Saturday, STL is still under an Ice Storm Warning effective until 6AM Monday.
For Saturday....Nothing of note during the daylight hours, but we should see another minor round of freezing rain/drizzle this evening/overnight.
For Sunday... again, probably nothing notable during the daylight hours, but we should get another round much like Friday night's event on Sunday Night. This one may cause problems, only if because we already have 1/4" of ice on the trees, and if another 1/4" was added on top of that, it could bring lots of trees/electric wires down. Also, this time around, the cold air is already in place (we aren't waiting for it to intrude, like yesterday), and the ground is probably in the 35F range, so it won't take nearly as much entropy to cool the ground to 32F.
As that jackass Dave Murray likes to say, "We're not out of the woods yet!" Stay tuned.
-WD
We sure dodged a bullet with this one, and I get to eat some crow. I feel a little sheepish about not trusting my initial instincts, and buying into the NWS hype about how bad this round of freezing rain was going to be.
At my house, we got about 1/4" of ice on the trees, but for the most part, our streets look like they would after a moderate rain event....namely, no ice to speak of. (Incidentally, this result is the one I gave the MOST weight to in my "Drop Dead Forecast." I am a sucker for not sticking to that. Oh, well; live and learn. )
So, I was dead-wrong about 3/4" of ice, and the streets being like a skating rink. The artic air didn't intrude quickly enough, and I am a bonehead for going against everything I know, and thinking that the arctic air WOULD make it here. It never does.
Still should be a busy weekend....
As of 10:00AM Saturday, STL is still under an Ice Storm Warning effective until 6AM Monday.
For Saturday....Nothing of note during the daylight hours, but we should see another minor round of freezing rain/drizzle this evening/overnight.
For Sunday... again, probably nothing notable during the daylight hours, but we should get another round much like Friday night's event on Sunday Night. This one may cause problems, only if because we already have 1/4" of ice on the trees, and if another 1/4" was added on top of that, it could bring lots of trees/electric wires down. Also, this time around, the cold air is already in place (we aren't waiting for it to intrude, like yesterday), and the ground is probably in the 35F range, so it won't take nearly as much entropy to cool the ground to 32F.
As that jackass Dave Murray likes to say, "We're not out of the woods yet!" Stay tuned.
-WD
Friday, January 12, 2007
Ice Storm Warning, Now Thru Sunday Midnight
Friday, January 12 3:25PM --
Alright.....earlier, I got a little hasty, and only gave a 25% chance of a "significant ice accumulation" event. I now believe that is what is going to happen. By around 8PM tonight, you will not want to be traveling the roads. And by tomorrow morning, it simply may not be possible to travel without truly risking your life. I know that sounds alarmist, and it is not in my nature to be alarmist....
But do you remember the November 30th storm? I can say, without hyperbole, that this storm may be one million times worse....LOL.
Yes, it's going to be bad. Yes, we will have widespread power outages. It is incumbent on you to prepare. Prepare now, but do so without panicking.
"My House, Chesterfield, Missouri" Prediction: 3/4" of ice during the night. Impassable roads by morning.
"My House" Prediction Confidence: High
Onset: Freezing rain should start around 8PM. As of 3:30PM, STL is seeing intermittent rain/drizzle, but nothing freezing yet.
Brief Discussion: If you own a pair of ice skates, you may be able to skate on your driveway tomorrow morning!
OK. That might be an exaggeration. But we are looking at a good deal of ice tonight. Temperatures tomorrow will not help, and then we will get hit by round 2 or freezing rain tomorrow night, and round 3 on Sunday night. This is going to be a bad storm.
Be safe. Be careful. Do not risk your life by traveling tomorrow.
-WD
Alright.....earlier, I got a little hasty, and only gave a 25% chance of a "significant ice accumulation" event. I now believe that is what is going to happen. By around 8PM tonight, you will not want to be traveling the roads. And by tomorrow morning, it simply may not be possible to travel without truly risking your life. I know that sounds alarmist, and it is not in my nature to be alarmist....
But do you remember the November 30th storm? I can say, without hyperbole, that this storm may be one million times worse....LOL.
Yes, it's going to be bad. Yes, we will have widespread power outages. It is incumbent on you to prepare. Prepare now, but do so without panicking.
"My House, Chesterfield, Missouri" Prediction: 3/4" of ice during the night. Impassable roads by morning.
"My House" Prediction Confidence: High
Onset: Freezing rain should start around 8PM. As of 3:30PM, STL is seeing intermittent rain/drizzle, but nothing freezing yet.
Brief Discussion: If you own a pair of ice skates, you may be able to skate on your driveway tomorrow morning!
OK. That might be an exaggeration. But we are looking at a good deal of ice tonight. Temperatures tomorrow will not help, and then we will get hit by round 2 or freezing rain tomorrow night, and round 3 on Sunday night. This is going to be a bad storm.
Be safe. Be careful. Do not risk your life by traveling tomorrow.
-WD
Ice Storm Warning!
Friday, January 12 12:15PM --
Well, right after I issued my "Drop Dead Prediction," the NWS issued an Ice Storm Warning in effect until Midnight Sunday. In case you don't realize it....that is a ridiculously long period for an Ice Storm Warning to be in effect. This is NOT good news.
Looks like my 25% chance of "significant ice accumulation" is too low, but I have to stick with that....Then again, I can make amends with the "My House" prediction that I will put out later.
We could be looking at WIDESPREAD power outages with this storm. Now would be the time to panic (cue Hare Krishnas strangling each other, ala the movie Airplane!)....just kidding, sort of.
But seriously...Be safe this weekend.
-WD
Well, right after I issued my "Drop Dead Prediction," the NWS issued an Ice Storm Warning in effect until Midnight Sunday. In case you don't realize it....that is a ridiculously long period for an Ice Storm Warning to be in effect. This is NOT good news.
Looks like my 25% chance of "significant ice accumulation" is too low, but I have to stick with that....Then again, I can make amends with the "My House" prediction that I will put out later.
We could be looking at WIDESPREAD power outages with this storm. Now would be the time to panic (cue Hare Krishnas strangling each other, ala the movie Airplane!)....just kidding, sort of.
But seriously...Be safe this weekend.
-WD
Winter Storm Watch -- 6PM Tonight thru Sunday Night
Friday, January 12 11:45AM
(I am viewing Sunday's Winter Weather Event as an entirely different storm, so the Drop Dead Prediction for the SUNDAY period will come later....)
Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction (For now thru SATURDAY NIGHT):
40% chance - minor glazing/icing, up to 1/4" that quickly turns to slush Saturday morning
25% chance - significant ice accumulation of 1/4" or more
25% chance - a whole lot of cold rain, but only a few slick spots
10% chance - nothing
Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium
Onset: Rain will probably start in earnest around 4PM today. By midnight, we will probably see some freezing rain/freezing drizzle. Tomorrow, there should be a lull, followed by another round of freezing rain.
Discussion: Argh...Freezing rain and Ice Storm events are so hard to predict with any accuracy. While it is quite true that artic air is pushing our way...even once it arrives I have a hard time believing that the temperature of the ground will cool to 32F for at least 12 more hours (ground temps are probably in the 40s right now, with how warm its been lately). And if the ground ain't 32F, then this is just a whole lot of cold rain.
Then again, the most current sounding from the NWS (at 11:06AM) is really "ringing the alarm," in a fashion that is very disconcerting when compared to the usual neutral wording that their dispatches have. Here is the NWS sounding:
Hmmmm. I am torn between believing their alarmist sounding, or trusting my prior knowledge of how these Ice Storm events usually go in STL. For now, I will go with what I have.
Once the freezing rain starts (if it ever does), I will give the "My House" prediction for this part of the storm.
-WD
(I am viewing Sunday's Winter Weather Event as an entirely different storm, so the Drop Dead Prediction for the SUNDAY period will come later....)
Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction (For now thru SATURDAY NIGHT):
40% chance - minor glazing/icing, up to 1/4" that quickly turns to slush Saturday morning
25% chance - significant ice accumulation of 1/4" or more
25% chance - a whole lot of cold rain, but only a few slick spots
10% chance - nothing
Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium
Onset: Rain will probably start in earnest around 4PM today. By midnight, we will probably see some freezing rain/freezing drizzle. Tomorrow, there should be a lull, followed by another round of freezing rain.
Discussion: Argh...Freezing rain and Ice Storm events are so hard to predict with any accuracy. While it is quite true that artic air is pushing our way...even once it arrives I have a hard time believing that the temperature of the ground will cool to 32F for at least 12 more hours (ground temps are probably in the 40s right now, with how warm its been lately). And if the ground ain't 32F, then this is just a whole lot of cold rain.
Then again, the most current sounding from the NWS (at 11:06AM) is really "ringing the alarm," in a fashion that is very disconcerting when compared to the usual neutral wording that their dispatches have. Here is the NWS sounding:
Dangerous conditions are on the doorstep! Temperatures will fall 30 degrees or more this afternoon and early evening. Patchy light rain will increase through the afternoon and evening and temperatures will fall below freezing by 400pm to 600pm. Road surfaces will begin to freeze by 600 PM to 700 PM this evening with major icing likely through the evening hours.
Hmmmm. I am torn between believing their alarmist sounding, or trusting my prior knowledge of how these Ice Storm events usually go in STL. For now, I will go with what I have.
Once the freezing rain starts (if it ever does), I will give the "My House" prediction for this part of the storm.
-WD
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Ice Storm This weekend?
FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY -- Looks like what was supposed to be just a whole lot of rain may actually turn out to be a significant Ice Storm....
Models all week have been calling for a rain event this weekend for the STL region, with an Artic air mass to our Northwest never making it here in time to give us any winter precipitation. Well, guess what! Throw that all out the window.
Newest model runs now indicate the possibility (probability?) of a prolonged Ice Storm for the period lasting from Friday night thru Sunday night along and north of the I-44 corridor in Missouri.
Winter Storm Watches will be issued later this afternoon.
Tomorrow I will give my Drop Dead Forecast....Stay Tuned.
-WD
Models all week have been calling for a rain event this weekend for the STL region, with an Artic air mass to our Northwest never making it here in time to give us any winter precipitation. Well, guess what! Throw that all out the window.
Newest model runs now indicate the possibility (probability?) of a prolonged Ice Storm for the period lasting from Friday night thru Sunday night along and north of the I-44 corridor in Missouri.
Winter Storm Watches will be issued later this afternoon.
Tomorrow I will give my Drop Dead Forecast....Stay Tuned.
-WD
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