Winter Storm Watch -- 6PM Tonight thru Sunday Night

Friday, January 12 11:45AM

(I am viewing Sunday's Winter Weather Event as an entirely different storm, so the Drop Dead Prediction for the SUNDAY period will come later....)

Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction (For now thru SATURDAY NIGHT):
40% chance - minor glazing/icing, up to 1/4" that quickly turns to slush Saturday morning
25% chance - significant ice accumulation of 1/4" or more
25% chance - a whole lot of cold rain, but only a few slick spots
10% chance - nothing

Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium

Onset: Rain will probably start in earnest around 4PM today. By midnight, we will probably see some freezing rain/freezing drizzle. Tomorrow, there should be a lull, followed by another round of freezing rain.

Discussion: Argh...Freezing rain and Ice Storm events are so hard to predict with any accuracy. While it is quite true that artic air is pushing our way...even once it arrives I have a hard time believing that the temperature of the ground will cool to 32F for at least 12 more hours (ground temps are probably in the 40s right now, with how warm its been lately). And if the ground ain't 32F, then this is just a whole lot of cold rain.

Then again, the most current sounding from the NWS (at 11:06AM) is really "ringing the alarm," in a fashion that is very disconcerting when compared to the usual neutral wording that their dispatches have. Here is the NWS sounding:

Dangerous conditions are on the doorstep! Temperatures will fall 30 degrees or more this afternoon and early evening. Patchy light rain will increase through the afternoon and evening and temperatures will fall below freezing by 400pm to 600pm. Road surfaces will begin to freeze by 600 PM to 700 PM this evening with major icing likely through the evening hours.

Hmmmm. I am torn between believing their alarmist sounding, or trusting my prior knowledge of how these Ice Storm events usually go in STL. For now, I will go with what I have.

Once the freezing rain starts (if it ever does), I will give the "My House" prediction for this part of the storm.

-WD