Wrap-Up: Snow Storm of January 20th

Sunday, January 21, 9:00AM--

Winter Storm Number 3 of the 2006-2007 season was big on promise, but not much on delivery. The predictions by the TV meteorologist types was for 5-6" of snow, creating a veritable Winter Wonderland. I mean, get over yourself already. 5-6 inches? Do you think we live at a ski resort? C'mon, you jerks, get your act together....

What was I right about?

• Well, pretty much everything. I said 3" of snow, and we got 3" of snow at my house, with a touch of sleet mixed in.
• I was right not to get caught in the hype early on before the storm started, getting all crazy about predictions of 6" of snow.
• I was right there wouldn't be any freezing rain with this storm, but that was sort of a no-brainer, so I don't get too much credit for that one.
• I was right that the Winter Storm Watch would be cancelled, and replaced with a Snow Advisory.

I guess I am going to have to snow-blow the driveway, and the boys will get a little sledding in today, but only barely.....What ever happened to the 12" snow storms of my youth? The last time we had more than 10" of snow in one storm was 1993. That, weather fans, is freakin' depressing.

Til the next storm....

-WD

Are you ready for some Snow?

Friday, January 19, 9:00PM--

Winter Storm Watch For Saturday night thru Sunday morning....

Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction (For SATURDAY EVENING thru Sunday Midday):
60% chance - 3" of snow
15% chance - more than 3", but less than 7"
15% chance - 0-3" of snow
10% chance - nothing

Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium

Onset: Snow will probably start in the evening Saturday. By midnight, we will probably see some light-to-moderate periods of snow. By Sunday midday, look for 3 inches of snow to have accumulated.

Discussion: Enh....this system is nothing to get all that bent out of shape about. Yeah, we'll get a nice little shot of snow with it....Hell, snow is WELCOME compared to the freezing rain of last week's storm. NO freezing rain with this event, just snow for us. Latest indications are that the system will be on the decline by the time it gets to us, and the air is so dry (is your skin all cracked like mine is??? Ugh) that the lower levels near the ground may take awhile to saturate, so I don't think we will really get much more than 3". No school cancellations (except maybe area Sunday schools) with this one. Sorry, weather fans...

I expect we will have a SNOW ADVISORY (when the NWS is expecting around 3-5" of snow) issued sometime tomorrow, and the Winter Storm Watch will be cancelled instead of being upgraded to a warning.

Hope I am wrong, and we get more! I love the white stuff...

-WD

Tree branches down....

Saturday, January 13 1:30PM--

I had to go feed my Mom's cats, as she is out of town....but this doubled as an opportunity to take a mini-tour of the area to survey Ice Storm damage.

Do you ever think about how a tree might fall on your car while you are driving? No? Me neither, because the chances are probably one-in-a-million of it ever happening. But this morning, the chances felt a lot more like one-in-one hundred, or one-in-fifty.

In our neighborhood, boughs were drooping over the road everywhere, with that depressed look about them that I tend to have when I am thinking about my mortgage....you had the feeling that if a bird were to land on one of those branches as you passed underneath, you were going to be talking to your insurance company later today.

Along Ladue Road, there was sawdust in numerous places... evidence that trees or large branches has just recently been chainsawed away to re-open the road. And on the way home, a road crew was busy removing a newly fallen branch that had not been there just 20 minutes before, when I had been coming from the other direction...

What does all of this mean? Well, I think this could spell serious trouble tonight and tomorrow for these poor trees, that got their collective wooden asses kicked during the November 30th storm, and then again last night. If we get a lot more Freezing rain (and we are forecast to get just that, tonight and tomorrow), the downed trees could number in the thousands, and power outages could be extreme.

-WD

Friday Night Ice Storm Wrap up

Saturday, January 13 10:00AM --

We sure dodged a bullet with this one, and I get to eat some crow. I feel a little sheepish about not trusting my initial instincts, and buying into the NWS hype about how bad this round of freezing rain was going to be.

At my house, we got about 1/4" of ice on the trees, but for the most part, our streets look like they would after a moderate rain event....namely, no ice to speak of. (Incidentally, this result is the one I gave the MOST weight to in my "Drop Dead Forecast." I am a sucker for not sticking to that. Oh, well; live and learn. )

So, I was dead-wrong about 3/4" of ice, and the streets being like a skating rink. The artic air didn't intrude quickly enough, and I am a bonehead for going against everything I know, and thinking that the arctic air WOULD make it here. It never does.

Still should be a busy weekend....

As of 10:00AM Saturday, STL is still under an Ice Storm Warning effective until 6AM Monday.

For Saturday....Nothing of note during the daylight hours, but we should see another minor round of freezing rain/drizzle this evening/overnight.

For Sunday... again, probably nothing notable during the daylight hours, but we should get another round much like Friday night's event on Sunday Night. This one may cause problems, only if because we already have 1/4" of ice on the trees, and if another 1/4" was added on top of that, it could bring lots of trees/electric wires down. Also, this time around, the cold air is already in place (we aren't waiting for it to intrude, like yesterday), and the ground is probably in the 35F range, so it won't take nearly as much entropy to cool the ground to 32F.

As that jackass Dave Murray likes to say, "We're not out of the woods yet!" Stay tuned.

-WD

Ice Storm Warning, Now Thru Sunday Midnight

Friday, January 12 3:25PM --

Alright.....earlier, I got a little hasty, and only gave a 25% chance of a "significant ice accumulation" event. I now believe that is what is going to happen. By around 8PM tonight, you will not want to be traveling the roads. And by tomorrow morning, it simply may not be possible to travel without truly risking your life. I know that sounds alarmist, and it is not in my nature to be alarmist....

But do you remember the November 30th storm? I can say, without hyperbole, that this storm may be one million times worse....LOL.

Yes, it's going to be bad. Yes, we will have widespread power outages. It is incumbent on you to prepare. Prepare now, but do so without panicking.

"My House, Chesterfield, Missouri" Prediction: 3/4" of ice during the night. Impassable roads by morning.

"My House" Prediction Confidence: High

Onset: Freezing rain should start around 8PM. As of 3:30PM, STL is seeing intermittent rain/drizzle, but nothing freezing yet.

Brief Discussion: If you own a pair of ice skates, you may be able to skate on your driveway tomorrow morning!

OK. That might be an exaggeration. But we are looking at a good deal of ice tonight. Temperatures tomorrow will not help, and then we will get hit by round 2 or freezing rain tomorrow night, and round 3 on Sunday night. This is going to be a bad storm.

Be safe. Be careful. Do not risk your life by traveling tomorrow.

-WD

Ice Storm Warning!

Friday, January 12 12:15PM --

Well, right after I issued my "Drop Dead Prediction," the NWS issued an Ice Storm Warning in effect until Midnight Sunday. In case you don't realize it....that is a ridiculously long period for an Ice Storm Warning to be in effect. This is NOT good news.

Looks like my 25% chance of "significant ice accumulation" is too low, but I have to stick with that....Then again, I can make amends with the "My House" prediction that I will put out later.

We could be looking at WIDESPREAD power outages with this storm. Now would be the time to panic (cue Hare Krishnas strangling each other, ala the movie Airplane!)....just kidding, sort of.

But seriously...Be safe this weekend.

-WD

Winter Storm Watch -- 6PM Tonight thru Sunday Night

Friday, January 12 11:45AM

(I am viewing Sunday's Winter Weather Event as an entirely different storm, so the Drop Dead Prediction for the SUNDAY period will come later....)

Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction (For now thru SATURDAY NIGHT):
40% chance - minor glazing/icing, up to 1/4" that quickly turns to slush Saturday morning
25% chance - significant ice accumulation of 1/4" or more
25% chance - a whole lot of cold rain, but only a few slick spots
10% chance - nothing

Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium

Onset: Rain will probably start in earnest around 4PM today. By midnight, we will probably see some freezing rain/freezing drizzle. Tomorrow, there should be a lull, followed by another round of freezing rain.

Discussion: Argh...Freezing rain and Ice Storm events are so hard to predict with any accuracy. While it is quite true that artic air is pushing our way...even once it arrives I have a hard time believing that the temperature of the ground will cool to 32F for at least 12 more hours (ground temps are probably in the 40s right now, with how warm its been lately). And if the ground ain't 32F, then this is just a whole lot of cold rain.

Then again, the most current sounding from the NWS (at 11:06AM) is really "ringing the alarm," in a fashion that is very disconcerting when compared to the usual neutral wording that their dispatches have. Here is the NWS sounding:

Dangerous conditions are on the doorstep! Temperatures will fall 30 degrees or more this afternoon and early evening. Patchy light rain will increase through the afternoon and evening and temperatures will fall below freezing by 400pm to 600pm. Road surfaces will begin to freeze by 600 PM to 700 PM this evening with major icing likely through the evening hours.

Hmmmm. I am torn between believing their alarmist sounding, or trusting my prior knowledge of how these Ice Storm events usually go in STL. For now, I will go with what I have.

Once the freezing rain starts (if it ever does), I will give the "My House" prediction for this part of the storm.

-WD

Ice Storm This weekend?

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY -- Looks like what was supposed to be just a whole lot of rain may actually turn out to be a significant Ice Storm....

Models all week have been calling for a rain event this weekend for the STL region, with an Artic air mass to our Northwest never making it here in time to give us any winter precipitation. Well, guess what! Throw that all out the window.

Newest model runs now indicate the possibility (probability?) of a prolonged Ice Storm for the period lasting from Friday night thru Sunday night along and north of the I-44 corridor in Missouri.

Winter Storm Watches will be issued later this afternoon.

Tomorrow I will give my Drop Dead Forecast....Stay Tuned.

-WD