Sorry, All. This one is NOT "The Big One"

Monday, February 11 -- 9:30AM

Winter Weather Advisory in Effect through Tuesday morning.....

I will cut right to the chase and tell you that school likely won't be cancelled due to this so-called storm.

I almost was not even willing to blog about this "storm," due to its insignificance. All weekend, I followed the models and the forecast updates, and there was really no reason (in my feeble mind) to get excited about this storm. The main energy of this storm is south of STL by 50-100 miles, and that is where the Winter Storm Warnings are. All we have is a lousy Winter Weather Advisory. The difference between a Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Weather Advisory is like the difference between a severe thunderstorm and a moderate rain shower.

But, my fans simply DEMAND and update, so here it is.

The timing of this storm is all wrong, both from a duration and onset standpoint. This will be a long storm with light precipitation throughout, quite unlike the heavy snow we experienced during the January 30th storm. Since the precipitation should be light, and spread out over such a long period, the streets should be fairly easy for the plows to get cleared. None of this bodes well for school closings.

Drop Dead prediction:
50% chance - 2" of snow, along with a light glazing of ice...but no big deal
20% chance - 3-5" of snow (IF this happens, it could close schools)
15% chance - less than 2" of snow, along with a little ice
15% chance - nothing

Sorry weather fans, but this just ain't "The Big One."

-WD