Here it Comes!

Monday, March 3 -- 4:30PM

Winter Storm Warning until Tuesday evening....

What may be the most significant winter storm in a number of years will effect the STL region tonight and Tuesday. All signs point to an axis of heavy snow extending from southwest Missouri into southern Illinois, with STL smack-dab in the middle. We might even see thundersnow!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lsx

The one thing that worries me is the rule "Don't forecast major snow until you see the flakes falling from the sky." With this system, we are relying on a "trowal" (a TRough of WArm air aLoft) to develop, and that will be the trigger for the heavy snow. That has not formed yet, but all of the models are predicting it to happen. That is why I have this much confidence.

As this is the case, I am going to go along with the NWS and predict heavy snow.

Drop Dead Prediction:
60% chance - 6+ inches of snow
20% chance - 0-5"
20% chance - sleet/snow/freezing rain not amounting to much

There is a better than average chance that we will get somewhat more than the 6 inches of snow in my prediction. Dare I say 12 inches? If so, it would qualify as one of the top ten 24 hour snowfalls of all time in STL.

Could it happen???

Think Snow!!!

-WD