Winter Storm Watch Sunday night thru Monday

Saturday, December 13 -- 4:00PM

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday 6PM to Monday 4PM...

All signs still pointing to a significant Ice Storm for our region for late Sunday night into Monday. To be honest, I have a hard time believing some of the numbers being thrown at us. For instance, tomorrow's high temperature will likely break 60 degrees, and then the cold front is supposed to pass, and the temperature will plunge into the 20s by Monday morning. A 40 degree drop? That's not exactly unprecedented, but we will need every last bit of that temperature drop to get the expected ice accumulations. If the temperature "only" drops 35 degrees instead of 40, then this will just be cold rain.

Predicting the effects of an Ice Storm is tricky business. Forecast models are pretty poor at anticipating how cold the air will REALLY be. To give you an idea, since Sunday's high temperature will be around 60 degrees, for us to get significant ice accumulations Monday morning, the temperature actually needs to fall into the lower 20s (say, 22F) during the rain event to overcome that prior warm air presence. Yes, yes, I realize water freezes at 32 degrees. But entropy is at work here. Ever notice that if you put a glass of water into a freezer it doesn't immediately freeze? Same thing.

Then again....

Interested if schools will be closed? My guess is the following scenario will play out:

• This Ice Storm scenario will "mostly" come true. Come early Monday morning, the temperature will be around 27, and freezing rain will be accumulating as ice on the ground. At 4AM or so, we will have a light glaze, and forecasts will be dire
• By 6AM, it will still be moderately raining, with the temperature around 25, grassy areas will be covered with ice, but streets will be only slightly bad. School district officials will envision kiddies standing at bus stops, covered in ice as if Frozone from The Incredibles had sprayed an Ice Ray their way. The school officials will hit the panic button, and there will be widespread school closings.
• By noon-time, most of those school officials will walk outside, see that there is no ice on the streets, scratch their heads and say, "We called off school for some cold RAIN?!?"

The margins for error are razor thin here. Just a few degrees either way will make a huge difference. But if I was a betting man, I would say there is a 60-70% chance of widespread school closings, and for a very short period of time Monday morning, those decisions to close schools will seem justified. What worries me is come mid-day Monday, a lot of school officials will be second guessing their decisions.

Remember, weather fans, there is nothing I want to see more than a thick sheet of ice covering everything, to the point that I need to break out my ice skates to take the dog outside. I am just not convinced we will get those extra 5 degrees.

-WD