Storm Wrap-Up

Friday, December 1 11:00AM--

The first winter storm to hit St. Louis in a couple of years proved to be a mixed bag of frozen (and not-so-frozen) precipitation....

Talking to my brother this morning, he heard an interesting stat on one of the TV stations: if all of the water that fell on the metro area during this storm had been in the form of snow, it would have made for 29"+ inches of snow...that's good for about 3 inches of water. For those of you who are math deficient, 1 inch of water equates to 8-12 inches of snow; an inch of water makes about 8 inches of "wet" snow, and about 12 inches of "powder" snow.

I am sure you are all dying to know how the "My House, Chesterfield, Missouri" prediction turned out. Well, I was right about some things, and wrong about some things. But, before I get to the breakdown, check out what a pine tree did to my childrens's swingset.

The "My House" prediction called for 1/4" of ice, followed by 1/2" of sleet accumulation, followed by 5 inches of snow.

In reality, it turned out to be about 2 inches of a sloppy freezing rain/sleet mix that froze hard under about 2 inches of snow.

So, I was wrong about the exact amounts. Too much of the water fell as freezing rain and sleet, and amazingly, the center of low pressure rotated warm air into the STL metro area and kept the snow at bay for most of the storm.

What was I right about?

• I was right that there would be almost universal school closings, which I first predicted on Tuesday. This morning, the roads were fairly treacherous in the STL area, because of all of that frozen sleet/rain mix under the snow, and the school closings were certainly justified. Also, about half a million people in the area are without power.



• I was right about Hannibal getting a foot snow....they got exactly 12.0 inches.



• I was right about the "thunder-sleet." We indeed had lightning and thunder in Chesterfield during our sleet storm last evening.



• And I was right to buck the trend of the TV weather guys who predicted 10 inches of snow....when are they going to learn?

Anyway, that's the wrap up....hope you tune in again for the next storm!

WD

Winter Storm Observations

Thursday, November 30 3:20PM--

We are in the middle of a moderate sleet storm as of 3:20PM.....been a mix of freezing rain and sleet most of the day. Could have more than 2 inches of the sleet before the snow ever starts to fall. May even see some "thunder-sleet" during this event.

NWS forecaster named "Glass" put out a revised forecast at 2:30, where he advertised 7-9" of total snow accumulation by tomorrow morning....not 20 minutes before (at 2:10PM), the same forecaster put out a "Hazardous Weather Outlook" statement saying 3-8" of total snow. I am hoping that he simply got some better information in those 20 minutes.

For now, I will stick to my prediciton of 5" of snow. Hope I am wrong! Would love nothing better than to eat some crow because we get drilled....

WD

School Closings

Just got an automated phone message from Parkway School District....Parkway schools are closing 2 hours early today. No mention of tomorrow yet.

On a related note: my son's preschool closed last week, before this storm even took shape over the Pacific Ocean. OK, not really.

WD

Winter Storm Warning Continues...

Thursday, November 30 9:30AM--

Like politics, all weather is local. I mean, since I live in STL, why would I care what the weather is like in Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan?

In that vein, I give you the "My House, Chesterfield, Missouri" prediction. If you look back at the posts in this blog, you can see the "general-to-specific" nature of my forecasting: First, I start to get geeked up a few days before the storm's arrival; then, roughly 24-48 hours before the storm, I give my "Drop Dead Prediction," which is kind-of-sort-of my prediction for the "Greater St. Louis Metro Area," where I literally CANNOT be wrong because one of the percentages I give MUST happen; and finally, I give the "My House, Chesterfield, Missouri" forecast, where I tell you EXACTLY what I think is going to happen weather-wise at My House. And if you happen to live within 10 miles as-the-crow-flies from My House, then this prediction should be fairly accurate for you as well.

Once the storm has ended, I will then review the "My House" prediction, and see how close I was. Sounds like lots of fun, huh?!? (if you own a screw driver, now might be the time to jam it into your forehead)

"My House, Chesterfield, Missouri" Prediction:
1/4" of ice during the day today, followed by 1/2" of sleet accumulation, followed by 5 inches of snow by 6AM Friday morning. Parkway School District cancels school for Friday.

"My House" Prediction Confidence: Medium-High

Onset:
9:00AM-Noon: Rain...mixing with and changing to freezing rain and sleet.

Noon-6PM: freezing rain and sleet continuing. But, we also may see a "dry slot" during this period. The roadways will probably just have a few slick spots here and there, and I expect sleet to accumulate on the grassy surfaces in particular; but, no "sheet-of-ice" on the roadways, because temps will be hovering around 32F, and the salt trucks will be out in force.

6PM-midnight: Temps drop closer to 28-29F, and Freezing rain and sleet start to freeze on EVERYTHING. By midnight, I expect the freezing rain and sleet to have frozen hard into a 1/4" sheet of ice. But no snow....yet. UPDATE: There should be some snow mixing in this evening.

Midnight-6AM: Snow. Lots of snow. 5 inches at My House, but if your name was Mark Twain, and someone was to roll your old bones out of bed up in Hannibal, you'd be looking at a FOOT of snow. That's how close this is going to be...someone within 75 miles of STL is going to get a FOOT of snow. I just don't think it will be us.

Brief Discussion:
Little disappointed that we are still just seeing rain in STL as of 9:00AM....hoping that the storm doesn't "wring out" all of the available moisture before the colder air gets here...the sub-freezing air is right on our doorstep, with temps just a couple of degrees above freezing at 9:30AM.

NWS Forecasts were just updated at 8:46...calling for 6-9 inches of snow in STL county. I hope they are right, but I am just seeing too much "dry slot" in Southwest Missouri to get geeked up for 6-9." I am thinking 5" is about as much as we can muster. But then again, that ought to be enough to close schools, because the overnight timing of the snow is just right, and also because there will be a sheet of ice under that snow.

WD

WINTER STORM WARNING -- Thursday into Friday

Wednesday, November 29 7:25PM

Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction (Updated):
40% chance - 1/4 inch of ice, followed by 6+ inches of snow (7-9 inches?)
20% chance - minor ice, followed by 0-6" of snow
10% chance - minor ice, minor sleet, but nothing to get bent out of shape about
30% chance - no wintry precipitation; i.e. only a cold rain, with lots of wind; or no rain at all

Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: High

Onset: See previous post

Discussion: See previous post

Additional Discussion:
We have not had a serious Winter Storm in St. Louis in over 2 years, and I have to say, I am excited about this one. Everything is coming together for this to be a real doozy. And, as you are a St. Louisan, I must remind you of your duty to act like a crazy person, race off to Dierberg's to buy milk and bread, and to drive 15 MPH in the fast lane at the first site of a snow flake.

But in all seriousness, unless things DRASTICALLY change...this storm should be a real whopper....and hopefully the harbinger of a snowy winter!

My guess is that Friday will be the day schools are almost universally closed. Some -- like my son's preschool that closes when the skies are partly cloudy -- may be closed tomorrow, or at least close early.

With all of that said, notice I didn't take down the "30% chance that we get only rain, or we get NOTHING." Have to guard against the "It Never Really Actually Snows in St. Louis" Effect.

Stay warm...but Think Snow!

WD

STRONG WINTER STORM FORECAST TO HIT ST. LOUIS THURSDAY

Wednesday, November 29 10:45AM

Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction:
30% chance - 1/4 inch of ice, followed by 6+ inches of snow
20% chance - minor ice, followed by 0-6" of snow
20% chance - minor ice, minor sleet, but manageable
30% chance - no wintry precipitation; i.e. only a cold rain, with lots of wind

Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium to High

Onset: Freezing rain should start mid-morning on Thursday, followed by a change-over to sleet, followed by a change-over to snow by mid-to-late afternoon on Thursday. Heavy snow is forecast for Thursday night, with STL right in the bulls-eye area for heavy snow. I expect the NWS to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning by this afternoon's 4PM "zone" forecast.

Discussion: Models have been advertising this Winter Storm since Sunday (see previous posts in this blog).

What a strange 48 hours we are in for....today, we should hit 70 degress, and even may have some severe thunderstorms. By Friday morning, it is not out of the question (though still highly unlikely) that we will have a foot of snow on the ground. There is even the possibility of rare "thundersnow" Thursday evening.

I usually don't like giving my "drop dead prediction" until closer to onset, but I won't have much more time available today. My guess is that the onset of mid-morning tomorrow is going to cause lots of headaches for school administrators....Do they cancel school in the middle of the day for icing? Maybe, maybe not. Snow probably will not start until tomorrow afternoon, and continue into tomorrow night. I think there is a pretty high liklihood that some (many?) schools will be cancelled on Friday.

Then again, in St. Louis, there is always that chance that this winter storm will evaporate right when it is on our doorstep; seems to happen at least half the time. The more dire the prediction from Dave Murray, the more likely we won't see anything but rain.

Anyway, there you have it. I will update this if something drastic happens.

Also, just so you know I don't take myself too seriously...don't believe the hype until you actually see the flakes falling from the sky!

Then again...Think snow!

WD

WINTER STORM WATCH -- Thursday

Tuesday, November 28 6:56PM--
All indicators are pointing toward a seasonably powerful Winter Storm for the late Wednesday night into early Friday morning period. The National Weather Service has STL under a Winter Storm Watch from 6AM Thursday til 6AM Friday...

With all of the indicators looking good...naturally, I start to get cautious. We've been burned too many times by Dave Murray and Cindy Preszler when it comes to dire predictions of snow in our fair Town.

Unfortunately, there have been some hints from my sources that things may not be so promising. At this point, I am only giving this a 60% chance of coming to fruition (then again, 60 or 70% is about as high as I will ever give the probablitiy of a Winter Storm occurring, and that's when ALL of my weather sources virtually guarantee it will occur)....I call this the "It Never Really Actually Snows in St. Louis" Effect.

Anyway, I need one more model run before I can go ahead with my Drop Dead Prediction, and I won't get that info out until Wednesday midday.

For now, I will say:

40% chance- significant winter precipitation; a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow, with numerous school closings;
20% chance- wintry precip, but not a big deal
40% chance- not a damn thing....just a bunch of rain, followed by cold wind

WD

Winter Storm for Late Week?

Monday, November 27 6:56PM--
With each successive model run, the forecast gets better (i.e. snowier). Of course, it's still way too far out in the future to get excited as of yet.

But I am keeping my fingers crossed.

Time frame has slowed just a bit. The wintry part of this system is looking to be a Thursday midday thru Friday midday event now. Possibility of significant freezing rain, sleet, and snow with this system. Ahead of the wintry precip, there could even be thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday.

Its possible that a Winter Storm Watch will be issued even before Wednesday....if so, then I'll start getting excited.

Until then....think snow!

WD

Winter System - Wed thru Thurs night?

Sunday, November 26 7:09PM--
Don't want to put too much hope into any forecasts this far out, but things might get intersting in the Wednesday night to Thursday night time frame. I will update as we get closer to the system's arrival.

Stay tuned.

-WD

Purpose of the Weatherdork blog

Hello all-

Call me Weatherdork. I am a St. Louisan, with a ridiculously dorky passion for the weather. Actually, the weather day-in-day-out can be kind of boring; it's the storms that I love. If I boil my "love for the weather" down to its essence, I guess its that I love the power exhibited by Mother nature over her flock.....G-d, what a Dork!

I have found over the years that I have a knack for predicting the weather better than any one single forecaster in the St. Louis area. Notice I said, "better than any ONE."

My method is certainly not rocket science. I simply take all of the information available to me from numerous weather sources, and filter out what my predictions are. I give my predictions as percentages. For example, let's say a Winter Storm is forecast to hit St. Louis. I would gather my information, and make a prediction as follows:

50% chance - all rain
30% chance - no precipitation
15% chance - up to 3" of snow
5% chance - more than 3" of snow

This blog will be updated any time of year when a Significant Weather Event is forecast to hit the St. Louis, Missouri region.