Winter Storm Warning Continues...

Thursday, November 30 9:30AM--

Like politics, all weather is local. I mean, since I live in STL, why would I care what the weather is like in Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan?

In that vein, I give you the "My House, Chesterfield, Missouri" prediction. If you look back at the posts in this blog, you can see the "general-to-specific" nature of my forecasting: First, I start to get geeked up a few days before the storm's arrival; then, roughly 24-48 hours before the storm, I give my "Drop Dead Prediction," which is kind-of-sort-of my prediction for the "Greater St. Louis Metro Area," where I literally CANNOT be wrong because one of the percentages I give MUST happen; and finally, I give the "My House, Chesterfield, Missouri" forecast, where I tell you EXACTLY what I think is going to happen weather-wise at My House. And if you happen to live within 10 miles as-the-crow-flies from My House, then this prediction should be fairly accurate for you as well.

Once the storm has ended, I will then review the "My House" prediction, and see how close I was. Sounds like lots of fun, huh?!? (if you own a screw driver, now might be the time to jam it into your forehead)

"My House, Chesterfield, Missouri" Prediction:
1/4" of ice during the day today, followed by 1/2" of sleet accumulation, followed by 5 inches of snow by 6AM Friday morning. Parkway School District cancels school for Friday.

"My House" Prediction Confidence: Medium-High

Onset:
9:00AM-Noon: Rain...mixing with and changing to freezing rain and sleet.

Noon-6PM: freezing rain and sleet continuing. But, we also may see a "dry slot" during this period. The roadways will probably just have a few slick spots here and there, and I expect sleet to accumulate on the grassy surfaces in particular; but, no "sheet-of-ice" on the roadways, because temps will be hovering around 32F, and the salt trucks will be out in force.

6PM-midnight: Temps drop closer to 28-29F, and Freezing rain and sleet start to freeze on EVERYTHING. By midnight, I expect the freezing rain and sleet to have frozen hard into a 1/4" sheet of ice. But no snow....yet. UPDATE: There should be some snow mixing in this evening.

Midnight-6AM: Snow. Lots of snow. 5 inches at My House, but if your name was Mark Twain, and someone was to roll your old bones out of bed up in Hannibal, you'd be looking at a FOOT of snow. That's how close this is going to be...someone within 75 miles of STL is going to get a FOOT of snow. I just don't think it will be us.

Brief Discussion:
Little disappointed that we are still just seeing rain in STL as of 9:00AM....hoping that the storm doesn't "wring out" all of the available moisture before the colder air gets here...the sub-freezing air is right on our doorstep, with temps just a couple of degrees above freezing at 9:30AM.

NWS Forecasts were just updated at 8:46...calling for 6-9 inches of snow in STL county. I hope they are right, but I am just seeing too much "dry slot" in Southwest Missouri to get geeked up for 6-9." I am thinking 5" is about as much as we can muster. But then again, that ought to be enough to close schools, because the overnight timing of the snow is just right, and also because there will be a sheet of ice under that snow.

WD