STRONG WINTER STORM FORECAST TO HIT ST. LOUIS THURSDAY

Wednesday, November 29 10:45AM

Weatherdork's Drop Dead Prediction:
30% chance - 1/4 inch of ice, followed by 6+ inches of snow
20% chance - minor ice, followed by 0-6" of snow
20% chance - minor ice, minor sleet, but manageable
30% chance - no wintry precipitation; i.e. only a cold rain, with lots of wind

Drop Dead Prediction Confidence: Medium to High

Onset: Freezing rain should start mid-morning on Thursday, followed by a change-over to sleet, followed by a change-over to snow by mid-to-late afternoon on Thursday. Heavy snow is forecast for Thursday night, with STL right in the bulls-eye area for heavy snow. I expect the NWS to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning by this afternoon's 4PM "zone" forecast.

Discussion: Models have been advertising this Winter Storm since Sunday (see previous posts in this blog).

What a strange 48 hours we are in for....today, we should hit 70 degress, and even may have some severe thunderstorms. By Friday morning, it is not out of the question (though still highly unlikely) that we will have a foot of snow on the ground. There is even the possibility of rare "thundersnow" Thursday evening.

I usually don't like giving my "drop dead prediction" until closer to onset, but I won't have much more time available today. My guess is that the onset of mid-morning tomorrow is going to cause lots of headaches for school administrators....Do they cancel school in the middle of the day for icing? Maybe, maybe not. Snow probably will not start until tomorrow afternoon, and continue into tomorrow night. I think there is a pretty high liklihood that some (many?) schools will be cancelled on Friday.

Then again, in St. Louis, there is always that chance that this winter storm will evaporate right when it is on our doorstep; seems to happen at least half the time. The more dire the prediction from Dave Murray, the more likely we won't see anything but rain.

Anyway, there you have it. I will update this if something drastic happens.

Also, just so you know I don't take myself too seriously...don't believe the hype until you actually see the flakes falling from the sky!

Then again...Think snow!

WD